Is it worth buying dollars and euros now - internal and external factors of growth / fall of the currency + expert advice and recommendations

Good day, dear readers of "Rich Pro"! In this article we will consider the question Is it worth buying dollars and euros now, since in conditions of economic instability, many want to invest the accumulated capital in foreign currencies.

From the article you will also learn:

• what is the current situation with foreign currencies;
• what factors lead to an increase or decrease in the exchange rate;
• advantages and disadvantages of buying dollars and euros now;
• is it worth taking dollars and euros in 2019 year;
• where to invest when the national currency of Russia falls.

Also in the article you will find advice to investors about Is it worth buying currency at all this year?

Submitted publication will be useful absolutely everyone. Here you will find a lot of interesting information, both those who are already buying currency and those who are just planning to do it.

Why is foreign currency growing or falling, is it worth buying dollars and euros now, where it is better to invest money for the purpose of saving - you will learn more about this and not only by reading the article to the end

1. What is the current situation with foreign currencies

When deciding to invest in dollars or euros, citizens set themselves the goal of reducing risks. They are associated with the cheapening of the national currency in connection with the availability of inflation. In addition, some of them want to increase the available capital. In such a situation, it is impossible to make the right decision without studying currency trends.

For several years, the cost European currency in the market stably increased. At the same time, the course dollar gradually declined. Just recently, financial experts have relied on the American currency. However, at the moment, their opinion has changed dramatically.

The crisis in Ukraine, as well as hostilities led to decrease course dollar ($). Therefore, today experts recommend refraining from investing in this currency.

First of all, the exchange rate is reduced under the influence of political factors. However, experts believe that jumps in value in the market are often caused by artificial reasons. Moreover, experts warn against rash acquisition of dollars and euros at the moment.

2. Why is foreign currency growing: external and internal factors affecting the exchange rate

First of all, the value of currencies is determined by supply and demand for them. Respectively, than above demand above course. In addition, the trade as well as the balance of payments have a serious impact on him.

Payment balance - this is the ratio of funds introduced into the state and withdrawn from it for a certain time period.

Trade balance - This is the ratio of goods that are imported into and exported from a country over a specific period of time.

The trade balance is seriously affected by:

• laws in the field of taxation, excise taxes, customs duties;
• various restrictions: import quotas, embargoes and sanctions.

The high level of domestic prices and the relatively low external prices gradually lead to the fact that foreign currencies are strengthening, while the national one is weakening.

Named balances may be:

• activeif the import of goods or services exceeds the export;
• passive in case of a reverse situation.

In terms of the impact on the economic situation, the passive balance undesirable. The fact is that it provokes a weakening of positions in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the state always strives for both types of its balance sheets to be active.

According to economic theory, the value of currencies is in accordance with their purchasing power parity. In practice, this situation is extremely rare. This is because in real life a huge amount of external and internal factors influence the course. Moreover, the consumer basket in different countries is significantly different.

In other words, quite conditional is the determination of the status of the currency using purchasing power parity. It is much more important to understand what factors can influence the course. Therefore, further we will consider 2 groups such criteria.

2.1. External factors

External factors of influence are called criteria that periodically occur outside the country of the currency issuer and can seriously affect a large number of processes within the state, including the economy.

The most significant external factors are:

• situation in the market for raw materials;
• situation in the world;
• gold reserves of foreign states;
• international sanctions, as well as other major financial decisions.

In addition to the external factors indicated, significant events in the world economy can be attributed.

It is important to understand: the larger and stronger the country, the more stable its currency is to the effects of external factors. And vice versa, the smaller and weaker the state is, the more adverse external factors influence it.

2.2. Internal factors of influence

By the way, you can trade financial assets (currency, stocks, cryptocurrency) directly on the stock exchange. The main thing is to choose a reliable broker. One of the best is this brokerage company.

Internal factors that affect the foreign exchange rate are:

• size of GDP;
• amount of inflation;
• unemployment rate;
• What is the state of the securities and real estate markets?

Information on all the above indicators is in the public domain, all data is subject to periodic publication in open sources.

It is on the basis of this information that Central banks (or similar bodies) decide on the need to take any measures regarding the national currency.

You also need to understand what emit actual and projected indicators. In situations where they are very different from each other, the exchange rate of foreign currencies can change quite sharply. In such situations, central banks take certain measures. Most often, they are used as a change in the key rate.

3. The advantages and disadvantages of buying dollars and euros now ➕➖

Before deciding to purchase dollars and European currencies, it is important to examine all the advantages and disadvantages of this procedure. Only by carefully analyzing everything pluses (+) and cons (-), you can understand how appropriate it is to carry out the operation.

3.1. Benefits

Those who consider buying foreign currency a good way to protect their savings cite the following arguments:

1. Investing in currency is available to everyone. Even for a small amount of money, you can buy a currency whose exchange rate is more predictable;
2. If you purchase foreign currency for a long period, it is possible with a fairly high probability to increase capital;
3. If you need to sell a small amount of currency, the transaction can be carried out at any time. Losses are minimal or nonexistent.

3.2. disadvantages

Despite the rather serious advantages of buying a currency, do not rush and make a decision on the transaction. Do not idealize such transactions. In fact, they have a number of disadvantages. They should be carefully studied before investing in currency.

The acquisition of foreign currency has the following disadvantages:

1. The foreign exchange rate is extremely unstable. There is a fairly high probability that the acquisition will be made when the course is at its maximum. As a result, a fall follows, the buyer incurs losses. If currency transactions are carried out for a large amount, they are quite risky precisely because of the possibility of serious leaps.
2. There is always a difference between the purchase and sale prices. Therefore, already at the time of the transaction, a loss is formed, which can be covered only due to the growth of the exchange rate. If you need to convert the currency back to rubles too soon, due to the exchange rate difference you can lose quite large amounts.
3. The Bank May Not Have the Amount Available. Large investors may face such a situation if they try to buy cash.
4. Experts believe that the storage of capital in cash is inefficient. They believe that money should work. However, storing large amounts of foreign currency in a bank is risky.

Only by carefully analyzing the advantages and disadvantages can we make the right decision regarding the advisability of acquiring foreign currencies.

4. What to take - dollars or euros? 💶

Ordinary citizens often ask themselves: which is more profitable and reliable - dollars or Euro. When deciding, it is important to consider several factors. The main ones are the following:

1. the ratio of the market dollar and euro rates at the moment;
2. what currency is the maximum demand in the buyer's region of residence;
3. which currency unit is used as a means of payment.

Now the market value Euro above cost dollar average 1.2 times. Throughout the day, their cost is constantly changing. However, for a sufficiently long time, serious jumps may not be observed.

Of course, you can not resort to analysis and just purchase both currencies. However, such an operation is risky enough and can lead to losses.

For those who periodically visit different countries, it is important to consider where exactly it is planned to go next time:

• If you have to visit America or Asian countries, it makes sense to buy dollars.
• If you are planning a trip to Europe, it is more advisable to purchase the euro.

Experts suggest that in the near future a reduction in the value of the dollar and euro is not planned. Therefore, investments in foreign currency in the long run will help not only to preserve capital, but also to increase it. More importantly, they are able to protect accumulations from the harmful effects of inflation.

It should be borne in mind that the dollar is used in most world countries. Due to this, there are few factors that can have an adverse effect on it. In this regard, the dollar is quite stable.

5. Is it worth buying dollars and euros now - experts' expectations

Even experts are far from always able to make the correct forecast for the further movement of exchange rates and ultimately correctly determine which of them should store their savings. Nevertheless, a regular analysis of the market situation helps to identify certain patterns in the course movements.

An important feature of the foreign exchange market is the following: if at the current moment the value of a monetary unit is underestimated not under the influence of crises in the sphere of economy and politics, in the near future we can count on it height.

However, this year experts suggest pressure on currencies from economic and political factors. They must be taken into account when choosing the currency in which the savings will be transferred. Consider in more detail what situation do experts expect with the dollar and euro this year.

5.1. Dollar

Most financial analysts agreed that 2019 year can be expected sharp growth the dollar in the global currency market. These assumptions are confirmed by the growth of the US domestic economy.

Russian financiers argue that the dollar against the ruble will rise. They believe that an increase in 2019 year will about 10%. We wrote in more detail about the ruble exchange rate in the article.

Moreover, specialists from the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation suggest that the dollar will rise to 70-80 rubles. For the most part, the reality of such a forecast is determined by sanctions against Russia. Read more in the article - "What will happen to the dollar in the near future."

5.2. Euro

When considering the situation with the euro, experts primarily focus on its instability. In general, the EU is experiencing economic growth. However, experts warn that at any time the weakening of the currency may begin under the pressure of difficulties in the banking sector.

Specialists are sure that if the elections are successful in Germany, the euro could rise. Moreover, if the problems in European countries are resolved in the near future, this currency can successfully compete with the dollar.

Regardless of the situation with exchange rates, the governor of the Central Bank of Russia advises the Russians today to keep their savings in national currency. He explains this advice by the fact that inflation in our country has declined. At the same time, interest on bank deposits began to go beyond the depreciation range.

By the way, about what inflation is, what are the causes and consequences of inflation, see in an interesting video:

However, it is important to understand: dollar today retains its own position, Euro remains unstable. In the same time I chop predict impairment in the near future against the dollar.

But it should be borne in mind that the situation will be determined by how the political and economic situation develops both in the country and in the world. For example, with a decline in oil prices, the dollar could grow even more.

6. Under what conditions is it worth buying dollars and euros

Before buying dollars and euros, you should analyze a number of criteria and answer questions for yourself. The most important of them are presented below.

1) What currency is overvalued

To understand the value of which currency is now overvalued, you can by analyzing the current ratio of the euro to the dollar. In January 2019 of the year this indicator was on average 1,12.

Turning to historical data, one can understand the following:

• Ratio size less than 1.2 demonstrates the fact that dollar is worth expensive.
• If the ratio increases to a value 1,3, this allows us to conclude that the strengthening of positions Euro.

In fact, when viewed 2 named currencies, they are not characterized by prolonged growth or decline. They constantly fluctuate in a certain range. When the dollar is overvalued, it makes sense to buy the euro, and vice versa.

2) What type of currency is important for a particular region

When deciding what to prefer - the dollar or the euro, the buyer should evaluate which of these currencies is most prevalent in the region of his residence.

For example, for Kaliningrad, the maximum value is Euro due to the geographical proximity of the European Union. For most other regions of Russia, of fundamental importance dollar.

3) Will the purchased currency be used for settlements

This issue is also of fundamental importance. There is no point in buying one currency if, literally in a few months, any payments are planned in another. Such a situation may for example arise in the case of trips abroad.

If you analyze the above criteria, study the forecasts of specialists, as well as changes in rates in recent years, you can make the right decision regarding transactions with currencies.

7. Is it worth it to buy currency (dollars and euros) now - 4 points for a deal

When deciding on the purchase of foreign currency, it is important to pay attention to the choice of the moment suitable for the transaction. One side, even professionals are not always able to make the correct forecast. On the other hand - You can identify a number of trends, the study of which helps to make the right decision.

1) Analysis of supply and demand

The main change in the foreign exchange rate is influenced by the ratio of supply and demand.

If you analyze the market, you can understand that:

• in the event of a currency deficit in the market, its rate will increase;
• with surpluses of the monetary unit, the exchange rate begins to decline quite actively.

It is not necessary to carry out the analysis yourself. Such reports are regularly published on certain Internet resources. They are freely available, and everyone can familiarize themselves with them.

2) Purchase at the time of the fall

If a low foreign exchange rate is not related to the crisis in the issuing country, one can expect its growth in the near future. Such periods are not long. If you have time to buy currency at this time, you can get a good profit.

3) Shopping within a month

If we consider the time period equal to one month, the optimal moment for transactions can be considered the interval from 15 to 25.

At this time, organizations that sell products for foreign currency pay taxes. Payments to the budget are made in rublesTherefore, there is an increase in the supply of foreign currencies.

4) Transactions with currency during the year

If we analyze the exchange rate during the year, the most optimal time for purchases can be considered December and January. At this time, states that buy raw materials from Russia make payments under contracts. As a result, an excess of currency is formed.

If you need to sell currency, the optimal time for transactions is the beginning of the month, as well as end of quarter. At this time, the demand for foreign currency usually grows, not only from organizations, but also from the state.

Given the above factors, you can choose the right moment to complete transactions. This will not only avoid losses, but also make a profit.

8. Is it worth buying dollars in 2019: 4 valuable expert advice

Investors should not forget: if you plan to invest in a sufficiently large amount, you should understand in advance what such a transaction will bring. That is why it is worth exploring the following expert advice in finance.

Tip 1. Decide on the purpose of acquiring currency

First of all, you should decide whether you plan to save money or spend.

• If the purpose of acquiring a currency is to preserve capital for a sufficiently long period of time, no questions arise.
• If the purchase is planned for a short period, it is unlikely that such an operation is appropriate.

The fact is that both during the acquisition and during the sale of the currency arises exchange difference. Ultimately, this will nullify all efforts. A foreign exchange loss could exceed the gain on a trade.

Tip 2. Maintain moderation in transactions

Specialists do not discourage investments in dollars. At the same time, they warn: this should be done as carefully as possible.

Buying Risks dollars below, therefore, it is he who in most cases is preferred. Euro more unpredictable, since the situation in the EU countries is unstable, there is a rather big difference between the Eastern states of this region and Germany and France.

Tip 3. Invest in the currency only half of the capital

Today, a number of experts suggest that in connection with the current policy in America, the dollar will grow in the near future. In an attempt to make money, many Russians begin to buy currency in large quantities.

However not everyone is inclined to believe that the dollar will seriously grow. Many experts believe that the ruble today also has good chances. And in the near future it may begin to grow. Some experts argue that the course will fluctuate in the range from 60 to 67 rubles per dollar.

To win, no matter which direction the course goes, not worth it invest all money in one currency. Experts advise to divide them in equal proportions between different monetary units.

Tip 4. Listen to the opinions of experts

Many experts believe that it is almost impossible to independently make the right decision on the acquisition of foreign currency without a specialized education.

It is worth considering: if it is necessary to purchase a currency for a sufficiently large amount, if the wrong decision is made, the loss will be too high. Therefore, it is worth consulting with specialists.

Experienced financiers are better versed in how the exchange rate behaves in a given period of time. Specialists can advise whether it is worth hurrying with the purchase or it makes sense to wait.

You can read the analytics, get acquainted with the calendar of economic events, find out the forecasts of experts and understand whether it is worth buying dollars now on specialized sites of forex brokers. For example, on a resource Forex club The listed sections are presented.

You can also open an account on the broker's resource and buy the currency of interest (be it a dollar, euro or bitcoin)

Given the above tips, you can avoid a huge number of errors. As a result, the probability of saving funds will be much higher.

9. In what currency should savings be saved and increased

The Russians gradually learned to make savings even with a small income. However, regardless of the size of capital, knowledge of how to better store and increase savings is of great importance.

It is important to remember the famous saying: the world is owned by the one who owns the information. Therefore, it is worth reading regularly, trying to learn something new in the field of finance. It is useful to visit various educational programs of a political and economic orientation.

Equally important is gaining experience in the field of entrepreneurship. Running your own business helps you learn how to make effective decisions yourself, as well as analyze the situation.

Experts give a number of recommendations on how to properly save and increase savings:

1. You should not store all capital in one currency. A much more effective option is to split funds at least into 3 parts. They must be invested in those currencies that seem to the owner of capital to be the most stable and reliable.
2. In the process of choosing a currency for investing savings, you should pay attention to little-known currency units that have certain prospects. Experts recommend yuan as options (¥), franc (£), as well as the currencies of the Middle East.
3. It makes sense to place part of the savings on a bank card or open a deposit in dollars or euros. However, in the context of a rapid change in the situation not worth it open deposits for a period of more than 2years even under very favorable conditions. In a few months, the situation can change radically, and what will happen in a few years is almost impossible to predict.
4. Experts advise to invest the main amount in their own business. Many find it difficult to find a suitable idea. But today, the Internet is able to help with this. Here you can find a whole list of options, from which it remains to choose the right one.
5. It is important as an idea for your own business to choose only those areas in which you understand and which are of interest to you. You should not start development in a certain direction only because it is most profitable. If there is no knowledge and interest, success is unlikely to succeed.
6. It is worth allocating a small amount of money for experiments. It is necessary to try to implement certain ideas. If at the initial stage it was possible to achieve success, and at the same time there are prospects for further development, it makes sense to invest a larger amount in the development of the project.
7. Not worth it take seriously, as a way to increase capital, various lotteries, betting companies, as well as financial pyramids.
8. If you need to purchase cash currency, you should not use the services of street money changers, even if they offer a very profitable course. There is a high probability of encountering scammers.

Finally, we give Another important rule: money should be taken with the utmost seriousness, without being afraid to dispose of it.

10. Where to invest money in periods of currency growth - TOP-11 ways to save

During the fall of the national currency (ruble, other national currency), many citizens are wondering: where to invest in order not to lose them. Below are the most effective ways to invest.

Method 1. Education

Many experts are sure that their own education is the best option for investments. However, it should be borne in mind that it will be possible to achieve a return on such investments only if you carefully study the labor market and the level of wages.

☝ It is not enough to identify a prestigious line of business, it is important that the chosen profession is in demand in the region of residence. In addition, it should be clarified in advance what income can be counted on in the end.

It is not necessary to spend money and time on getting a higher education, especially when it is already available. You can use all kinds of courses for advanced training, trainings and workshops.

In any case, it should be understood: education is a long-term investment method. However, with its proper use, you can ensure yourself financial stability in the future.

Method 2. Business

Investing in a business can be divided into 2 main groups: investing in someone else's or own business. The first option can be used only subject to the availability of free capital. Such investments do not give any guarantees of profit.

If you decide to invest in a newly created organization, you should carefully analyze it business plan. In this case, special attention should be paid to the payback period of investments. In any case, the chosen activity should interest the investor and be clear to him. In this case, correctly assessing the situation will be much easier.

If the investment in someone else's business is successful, the investor will be able to receive passive income. The size of the profit will be determined primarily by the amount of investments.

If you invest in your own business, you will need more serious skills and knowledge. It is important to choose a business in which you are interested, otherwise it is unlikely to succeed. For more information about investing in a business, read the article here.

Method 3. Savings account

Savings account - This is an account opened in a banking organization that does not have a term. You can replenish it at any time, withdrawals are also carried out without restrictions. The bank accrues interest on the funds placed in the savings account.

This option of investing does not make it possible to earn a lot, since the interest on such an account highly low. However, it allows you to save the savings and even receive at the expense of them a small income. A savings account should not be confused with a bank deposit (deposit).

Method 4. Deposit in the bank

Depositsopened at the bank is one of the most popular options for obtaining passive income. In this case, the investor only needs to choose a bank that offers the most favorable conditions for deposits. Read more about bank deposits in our last issue.

You can conclude an agreement:

• in online mode;
• by contacting the office.

The depositor shall provide the banking organization with its funds for a predetermined period. For this he is charged interest. Income can be paid every month or at the end of the deposit term. In case of monthly accrual, if the investor does not withdraw interest, income may also be accrued on them.

Method 5. Forex

The Forex currency market with independent trading allows you to earn quite quickly and a lot. However, such activities are associated with high risk level. Therefore, quickly enough, you can lose all invested funds.

If you do not have enough knowledge for independent trading, experts advise transferring capital to trust management. You can do this, including using the service PAMM accounts.

To make money on Forex, you have to register with one of the Forex brokers. In order not to become a victim of scammers, it is important to take the choice of such a company with maximum responsibility. A trusted broker with positive reviews on the network is a broker - Forex club.

Method 6. Promotions

Stocks name the type of securities, the buyer of which receives part of the property of the company, as well as the right to a share of its profit, paid in the form dividends.

The amount of income for them is not known in advance. It is determined by how successful the company will be. Moreover, the result is determined only at the end of the financial year. Nevertheless, there is a way to receive a fixed income on such securities - to purchase preference shares.

When investing in stocks, it is important to consider the fact that they can decline in value at any given time. therefore in order to diversify risks, experts recommend sharing capital between the securities of several companies.

To purchase shares, you will have to not only study the features of the functioning of the exchange and the current situation in the stock market, but also choose a reliable broker. Ideally, he should be licensed by the Central Bank of Russia.

Method 7. Federal bonds

The issuer of federal loan bonds is Ministry of Finance of Russia. The essence of such securities is that their buyer disburses funds to the state at interest.

Income from government bonds is almost equal to interest on bank deposits. But at the same time, federal securities are more reliable than deposits. Their buyer can be sure that they will make a profit.

Method 8. ETF Fund

Investments in ETF Fund involve the acquisition of a ready-made stake in the stock exchange fund. The portfolio of such a fund consists of securities of several organizations. Therefore, the probability of obtaining, although small, but guaranteed profit is quite high.

Method 9. Individual Investment Account

Individual Investment Account represents one of the types of capital investments that generate income. It allows you to invest money in the stock market by acquiring stocks, bonds or shares. Even if the owner of IIS does not place capital in this way, he in any case receives interest on the invested amount.

Take note! When opening an individual investment account, the investor can use deduction from personal income tax in the amount of 52 000 rubles annually. But you can use it only on condition that the funds lie no less 3years.

Method 10. Property for rent

Investing in real estate is a win-win way to invest.Advantage the investment method under consideration is that, regardless of the circumstances, the investor remains the apartment. In addition, over time, real estate grows in value.

However, there are several disadvantages:

• the payback period with this method is quite long;
• initial investment size is relatively high and not everyone has a similar amount to buy. To get the opportunity to rent property, you will have to spend several million rubles. However, there is always the option of acquiring an apartment in a mortgage;
• there are periods of downtime since it is far from always possible to quickly find new tenants when the old ones have moved out.

About real estate investments, we wrote in detail in the last issue, where we examined the main pros and cons of investing in real estate.

Method 11. Acquisition of an apartment at the construction stage

One of the most profitable investment options, experts call the purchase of apartments at the initial stage of construction, when their price is minimal. After the house is commissioned, the value of the property may increase by approximately 30-50%.

It is important to understand: before you invest a thorough analysis of the real estate market at the place of purchase should be carried out. If you buy an apartment in an unsuccessful house, you are unlikely to receive income.

Experts do not recommend buying apartments of a large area, since the demand for them is much lower. Selling them may take a while. In addition, experts advise contacting a reliable real estate agency, which employs experienced lawyers. They will be able to offer options from trusted developers.

When using this method of investing, there is a risk that the house will not be completed. Besides, the economic situation may change and a crisis will begin. As a result, demand will fall; the purchased apartment will be quite difficult to sell. However, it will be possible to lease property until the price rises again.

Compare the presented options will help the table, which describes their main characteristics.

Table: “The main methods of investing, their risk levels and terms of earning income”

11. Conclusion + useful video

It is impossible to find a definite answer to the question: is it impossible to buy dollars and euros now? We will have to conduct an analysis, to study possible options. Also of great importance is the opinion of experts.

Many citizens buy / sell dollars and euros (other currencies) for the purpose of earning. Therefore, in the conclusion of the article, we recommend watching a video about Forex trading and methods of earning in the foreign exchange market:

We wish our readers financial well-being, regardless of the economic situation!

Dear readers of RichPro.ru, we will be very grateful if you share your opinions and comments on the topic of publication in the comments below. See you on the pages of our online magazine!

Watch the video: How Chinese Currency Devaluation May Trigger a Global Financial Crisis? Recession Watch (December 2024).